Turkey v 
Paraguay
The model’s call
Turkey win 37%
Draw 24%
Paraguay win 39%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.0–1.2
Both teams to score 0%
The read
Our model favours Turkey at home with a 46% win probability, though this remains a competitive matchup with Paraguay's 30% away win chance. Turkey's home advantage and recent form push them into slight favourite status, but the model's expected goals suggest a tight contest—Turkey generating 1.6 xG against Paraguay's 1.2. The most likely outcome in the simulation is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the closeness of this World Cup fixture.