Australia v 
Turkey
The model’s call
Australia win 46%
Draw 23%
Turkey win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Australia a slight edge at home with a 46% win probability, though a draw (24%) and Turkey upset (30%) remain realistic outcomes. The Socceroos' home advantage and expected goal superiority (1.6 to 1.2) support the model's pick, but Turkey's away form suggests this will be competitive throughout.
Full time
Australia 2–0 Turkey
The model picked a australia win — it called this one right.