United States v 
Paraguay
The model’s call
USA win 46%
Draw 23%
Paraguay win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model rates this a competitive encounter, giving United States a slight edge at 46% to win, though a draw at 24% and Paraguay upset at 30% remain entirely plausible. The hosts benefit from home advantage and stronger recent form, but Paraguay's defensive solidity keeps them in contention. Expected goals favour the US (1.6 to 1.2), suggesting they'll create more, though the most likely outcome is a 1-1 stalemate.
Full time
USA 4–1 Paraguay
The model picked a usa win — it called this one right.