Morocco v 
Haiti
The model’s call
Morocco win 50%
Draw 26%
Haiti win 24%
Likely score 0–0
Expected goals 0.8–0.0
Both teams to score 0%
The read
Our model gives Morocco a slight edge at home with a 46% win probability, though this is a competitive match that could easily go either way. The home advantage and Morocco's stronger expected goal output (1.6 to 1.2) support the favourites, but Haiti's 30% win chance reflects their capacity to trouble any opponent. The most likely outcome according to our model is actually a 1-1 draw, highlighting the tight nature of this fixture.