Scotland v 
Brazil
The model’s call
Scotland win 50%
Draw 26%
Brazil win 24%
Likely score 0–0
Expected goals 0.8–0.0
Both teams to score 0%
The read
Our model gives Scotland a slight edge at home against Brazil, with a 46% win probability compared to 30% for the visitors. The Scots benefit from home advantage and strong recent form, though Brazil remain formidable opponents. Scotland's expected goals of 1.6 to Brazil's 1.2 suggest the hosts have the edge in creating chances, but a draw at 1-1 is the most likely outcome, reflecting how competitive this fixture is expected to be.