Scotland v 
Morocco
The model’s call
Scotland win 50%
Draw 26%
Morocco win 24%
Likely score 0–0
Expected goals 0.8–0.0
Both teams to score 0%
The read
Our model gives Scotland a 46% chance of victory at home against Morocco, with the hosts favoured despite relatively close probabilities across all outcomes. Scotland's home advantage and expected goal generation (1.6 xG) underpin the prediction, though Morocco's defensive solidity (1.2 xG conceded) suggests this will be competitive. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 reflects the tight nature of the matchup, with both sides capable of creating chances.