Haiti v Scotland

The read

Our model gives Haiti a slight edge at home with a 46% win probability, though it's a competitive fixture with Scotland well-positioned at 30%. The hosts benefit from home advantage in this World Cup qualifier, though the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. Expected goals favour Haiti (1.6 to 1.2), suggesting they may create slightly more attacking opportunities, but Scotland's away form and defensive organisation make this a tight contest.