Brazil v 
Morocco
The model’s call
Brazil win 46%
Draw 23%
Morocco win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Brazil a narrow advantage over Morocco in this World Cup encounter, backed by their home status and generally superior form. The 46% home-win probability reflects Brazil's attacking threat—an expected 1.6 goals—but Morocco's defensive organisation keeps them firmly in contention at 30% to win. The model's most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, suggesting both sides will create chances in an evenly matched tie.
Full time
Brazil 1–1 Morocco
The model picked a brazil win — it didn't call this one.