Bosnia-Herzegovina v 
Qatar
The model’s call
Bosnia-H. win 44%
Draw 26%
Qatar win 30%
Likely score 0–0
Expected goals 0.8–0.6
Both teams to score 26%
The read
Our model makes Bosnia-Herzegovina slight favourites at home with a 46% win probability, though the outcome remains genuinely competitive. The hosts' home-field advantage and marginally superior expected goals (1.6 vs 1.2) underpin their edge, but Qatar's 30% win chance reflects their capacity to trouble the home side. A draw sits at 24%, suggesting a cagey affair where both teams could leave satisfied.