Switzerland v 
Canada
The model’s call
Switzerland win 44%
Draw 26%
Canada win 30%
Likely score 0–0
Expected goals 0.8–0.6
Both teams to score 26%
The read
Our model gives Switzerland a slight edge at home, with a 46% win probability compared to Canada's 30%, though a draw remains plausible at 24%. The expected goals figures (1.6 to 1.2) suggest a closely contested match where Switzerland's home advantage and familiarity with the Gelsenkirchen venue provides a marginal edge, yet Canada's defensive record makes this far from a foregone conclusion.