Canada v 
Qatar
The model’s call
Canada win 44%
Draw 26%
Qatar win 30%
Likely score 0–0
Expected goals 0.8–0.6
Both teams to score 26%
The read
Our model favours Canada at home, giving them a 46% chance of victory compared to Qatar's 30%, with a 24% draw probability. The hosts benefit from home advantage and a modest expected goals advantage of 1.6 to 1.2, though the model's most likely outcome is an even 1-1 draw, suggesting a competitive match. Canada will need to convert their opportunities efficiently to turn their slight edge into three points.