Switzerland v 
Bosnia-Herzegovina
The model’s call
Switzerland win 44%
Draw 26%
Bosnia-H. win 30%
Likely score 0–0
Expected goals 0.8–0.6
Both teams to score 26%
The read
Our model gives Switzerland a marginal edge at home, with a 46% win probability compared to Bosnia-Herzegovina's 30%, though a draw at 24% remains plausible. The hosts' advantage is modest rather than commanding, reflecting Bosnia-Herzegovina's competitive standing. Switzerland's home advantage and expected goals advantage (1.6 to 1.2) support the slight favouring, but the relatively close probabilities suggest this will be a competitive fixture.