South Africa v 
South Korea
The model’s call
South Africa win 33%
Draw 22%
Korea Republic win 45%
Likely score 0–2
Expected goals 0.0–2.5
Both teams to score 0%
The read
Our model gives South Africa a slight edge at home with a 46% win probability, though a draw remains a realistic outcome at 24%. The home advantage and South Africa's expected goal rate of 1.6 gives them an attacking platform, but South Korea's defensive solidity—holding South Africa to just 1.2 expected goals conceded—suggests this will be competitive. A close match is the most likely scenario, with the model's median forecast pointing to a 1-1 draw.