Mexico v 
South Korea
The model’s call
Mexico win 53%
Draw 22%
Korea Republic win 25%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.6–0.0
Both teams to score 0%
The read
Our model slightly favours Mexico at home, giving them a 46% win probability against South Korea. The hosts' home advantage and superior expected goals (1.6 to 1.2) underpin the lean towards a Mexican victory, though a competitive South Korean side keeps the gap modest. However, the model's most likely scoreline is actually a 1-1 draw, reflecting the closeness of this World Cup group-stage encounter.