Czechia v 
South Africa
The model’s call
Czechia win 53%
Draw 22%
South Africa win 25%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.6–0.0
Both teams to score 0%
The read
Our model gives Czechia a slight edge at home with a 46% win probability, though a draw at 24% and South Africa upset at 30% show this is a competitive fixture. Czechia's home advantage and expected goal advantage (1.6 to 1.2) support their favoured status, but South Africa's away win probability reflects their quality and unpredictability in World Cup football.