Mexico v 
South Africa
The model’s call
Mexico win 46%
Draw 23%
South Africa win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model favours Mexico at home, giving them a 46% chance of victory compared to South Africa's 30%, with a 24% probability of a draw. The home advantage and Mexico's expected goalscoring edge (1.6 xG vs 1.2) underpin the prediction, though the relatively tight probabilities reflect this as a competitive fixture. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, suggesting both sides will have genuine chances to decide the match.
Full time
Mexico 2–0 South Africa
The model picked a mexico win — it called this one right.