Hellas Verona FC v 
AS Roma
The model’s call
Verona win 13%
Draw 19%
Roma win 68%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.4–1.5
Both teams to score 28%
The read
Our model heavily favours AS Roma in this away fixture against Hellas Verona FC, giving the visitors a 67% win probability. Roma's superior form and attacking quality are reflected in an expected goals advantage, with the model projecting 1.5 goals for the away side compared to just 0.5 for Hellas, resulting in a most likely scoreline of 0-1. While Verona will have home advantage on the day, Roma's quality gives them a clear edge to claim three points.
Full time
Verona 0–2 Roma
The model picked a roma win — it called this one right.