AC Milan v 
Cagliari Calcio
The model’s call
Milan win 64%
Draw 20%
Cagliari win 16%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.6–0.6
Both teams to score 34%
The read
Our model favours AC Milan heavily at home, giving them a 65% chance of victory against Cagliari Calcio. The underlying expected goals data (1.5-0.6) reflects Milan's attacking dominance and defensive solidity, with the Rossoneri creating significantly more opportunities than their visitors. Home advantage in Serie A remains a key factor, and Milan's form and quality should tell over the course of 90 minutes.
Full time
Milan 1–2 Cagliari
The model picked a milan win — it didn't call this one.