ACF Fiorentina v 
Atalanta BC
The model’s call
Fiorentina win 35%
Draw 29%
Atalanta win 37%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.0–1.1
Both teams to score 43%
The read
Our model gives Atalanta BC the edge in this Serie A encounter, predicting a 41% chance of an away victory compared to Fiorentina's 32% home win probability. Atalanta's superior expected goals output (1.2 to Fiorentina's 1.0) reflects their attacking potency, likely outweighing the hosts' home advantage. The model's most likely outcome is a narrow 0-1 defeat for Fiorentina, suggesting a tightly contested match where Atalanta's efficiency could prove decisive.
Full time
Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta
The model picked a atalanta win — it didn't call this one.