Udinese Calcio v 
US Cremonese
The model’s call
Udinese win 62%
Draw 21%
Cremonese win 17%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.4–0.7
Both teams to score 37%
The read
Our model favours Udinese Calcio at home, assigning them a 62% win probability against US Cremonese. The hosts' advantage is underpinned by home-field benefit and a clear expected goals edge of 1.4 to 0.7, suggesting they should create more quality chances. Cremonese pose a threat on the road, but the model sees them as underdogs in this late-season fixture, with a 17% chance of pulling off an away victory.
Full time
Udinese 0–1 Cremonese
The model picked a udinese win — it didn't call this one.