US Sassuolo Calcio v 
US Lecce
The model’s call
Sassuolo win 59%
Draw 23%
Lecce win 18%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.3–0.5
Both teams to score 30%
The read
Our model favors US Sassuolo Calcio at home, giving them a 59% win probability against US Lecce. The hosts' advantage is built on home-field strength and a clear expected-goals edge of 1.3 to 0.5, suggesting Sassuolo should control play and create the better chances. Lecce's away record and defensive vulnerability make them underdogs, though a draw remains plausible at 23%.
Full time
Sassuolo 2–3 Lecce
The model picked a sassuolo win — it didn't call this one.