Juventus FC v 
ACF Fiorentina
The model’s call
Juventus win 67%
Draw 18%
Fiorentina win 15%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.8–0.7
Both teams to score 41%
The read
Our model favours Juventus FC to secure victory at home, assigning a 67% probability to a Juventus win. The home advantage and their superior expected goals output (1.8 to 0.7) underpin this assessment, with the model's most likely outcome being a narrow 1-0 victory. However, ACF Fiorentina remain competitive visitors, and the combined 33% probability of a draw or away win reflects the inherent uncertainty in football.
Full time
Juventus 0–2 Fiorentina
The model picked a juventus win — it didn't call this one.