Juventus FC vs 
ACF Fiorentina
Most likely scoreline 1–0 · Expected goals 1.8–0.7
The read
Our model favours Juventus FC at home with a 67% win probability against ACF Fiorentina. The hosts' advantage comes from their strong home record and superior attacking threat, reflected in an expected goals differential of 1.8 to 0.7 in their favour. The most likely outcome is a narrow 1-0 victory, though Fiorentina's away record suggests they could trouble the Juventus defence on the day.
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