FC Internazionale Milano v 
Hellas Verona FC
The model’s call
Inter win 89%
Draw 7%
Verona win 4%
Likely score 2–0
Expected goals 2.8–0.4
Both teams to score 30%
The read
Our model heavily favours FC Internazionale Milano to secure three points at the San Siro, assigning them an 89% win probability. Inter's dominant expected goals advantage of 2.8 to 0.4 reflects their superior attacking threat and defensive control, underpinned by home advantage and their position as Serie A's stronger outfit. Hellas Verona face an uphill battle to trouble the hosts, with the model projecting a most likely 2-0 victory for the Nerazzurri.
Full time
Inter 1–1 Verona
The model picked a inter win — it didn't call this one.