Atalanta BC v 
Bologna FC 1909
The model’s call
Atalanta win 50%
Draw 24%
Bologna win 26%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.3–0.9
Both teams to score 44%
The read
Our model favours Atalanta BC to edge out Bologna FC 1909 in this Serie A encounter, giving the hosts a 50% win probability. Atalanta's home advantage and superior expected goals (1.3 vs 0.9) underpin the prediction, suggesting they should create clearer chances despite Bologna offering genuine resistance—a draw is rated at 24% and an away win at 26%. The most likely scoreline points to a narrow 1-0 home victory.
Full time
Atalanta 0–1 Bologna
The model picked a atalanta win — it didn't call this one.