AS Roma v 
SS Lazio
The model’s call
Roma win 55%
Draw 25%
Lazio win 20%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.2–0.6
Both teams to score 31%
The read
Our model favours AS Roma at home in this Derby della Capitale, giving them a 55% chance of victory against SS Lazio. The Giallorossi's home advantage and expected goal metrics (1.2 xG vs 0.6 xG) underpin the prediction, though a quarter of outcomes point to a draw in what is typically a competitive fixture. Lazio's away form would need to be strong to overturn the statistical lean towards a Roma win.
Full time
Roma 2–0 Lazio
The model picked a roma win — it called this one right.